Prices for SD cards and microSD cards keep climbing. The driver is surging NAND demand from AI data centers: retail prices spiked in the fall of 2025 and remain elevated as of August 2026. Piecing together current industry forecasts, meaningful price declines are unlikely before the second half of 2027, and prices that actually feel "cheap" again are a story for 2028 or later.

Three straight quarters of surges have repriced the market

First, where things stand. Average prices of memory cards and USB flash drives have risen 124 percent in under a year since 2025, with some products up as much as 261 percent[1]. The pace of increase has slowed from the previous quarter, but there is still no sign of an actual decline.

Behind this, NAND contract prices jumped for three consecutive quarters: up 33 to 38 percent quarter over quarter in Q4 2025, 55 to 60 percent in Q1 2026, and 70 to 75 percent in Q2 2026[2]. The cumulative increase works out to roughly 4.2 to 4.5 times — less a temporary supply hiccup than a structural repricing of the market.

Supply-side moves confirm how tight things are. Kioxia has stated that its entire NAND production allocation for 2026 is already sold out[4], and Micron announced it will end sales of its consumer-focused Crucial brand in February 2026, redirecting supply to AI and enterprise customers[5]. The share allocated to consumer products keeps shrinking.

The turning point is the second half of 2027 — with a caveat

According to TrendForce's forecast as of July 2026, the NAND market will run a 4 to 5 percent supply deficit through 2026, but the supply-demand balance will turn positive in the second half of 2027, gradually easing the shortage[3]. Production line upgrades, migration to higher-layer NAND, and new fabs coming online should make 2027 bit supply growth far stronger than in 2026.

The caveat: price declines only begin in the second half of 2027, and it will take much longer for prices to return to levels consumers consider "normal."

Consumer products may recover even later

One thing to watch: even as enterprise NAND supply loosens, manufacturers will prioritize high-margin enterprise SSDs, so consumer channel prices are expected to stay elevated throughout 2027. New fab capacity will also be allocated first to HBM and enterprise products, which leads some analysts to conclude the earliest realistic window for relief is 2027, with a true return to normal pricing and supply closer to 2028 or 2029. Low-priced products like microSD cards sit at the very bottom of the allocation queue, so their recovery will likely lag behind SSDs.

There are two wild cards. If YMTC's capacity expansion proceeds as planned, the supply oligopoly could weaken and normalization could come sooner. Conversely, a sharp slowdown in AI data center investment could send prices tumbling.

Summary

The current outlook in brief:

  • Through 2026: little hope of price drops — expect gradual increases to flat pricing, with modest discounts on select products around Black Friday in Q4 at best
  • Second half of 2027: the earliest scenario for declines as supply and demand rebalance
  • 2028 and beyond: prices start to feel affordable again, though a return to the 2024 bottom is unlikely

Practically speaking, if you need a specific capacity for a camera or a Switch 2, don't count on waiting for prices to fall — buy what you need when you need it. For non-urgent, high-capacity archival storage, holding off until the second half of 2027 or later looks worthwhile.

出典:https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/storage/memory-cards-and-flash-drives-prices-rocket-124-percent-some-products-peak-at-261-percent-jump-increases-from-2025-driven-by-ai-chip-shortage-across-a-range-of-formats-and-capacities

出典:https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/dram-and-nand-contract-prices-to-climb-again-in-q2

出典:https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260721-13148.html

出典:https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/ssds/memory-manufacturer-kioxia-reveals-its-entire-nand-flash-production-volume-for-2026-is-already-sold-out/

出典:https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-announces-exit-crucial-consumer-business