Ming-Chi Kuo, the analyst well known for his Apple forecasts, has published a new research note on the notebook PC market in 2026[1]. According to the note, while Windows notebook shipments are expected to fall by double digits year over year, only Apple's MacBook lineup is set to grow substantially. The note also looks ahead to the new "MacBook Neo" and the roadmap for OLED panel adoption[1]. Please read what follows as an analyst's forecast and observations, not an official Apple announcement.
MacBook Neo Shipment Outlook and Production Trends
According to Kuo, the MacBook Neo entered small-volume production at the end of December 2025[1]. That is roughly three months later than the October timing he had originally expected, and because mass production slipped, 2026 shipments are now seen at a somewhat lower 4.5 to 5 million units than his earlier estimate[1]. Of that total, roughly 2 to 2.5 million units are expected in the first half of 2026, which Kuo regards as still a very strong figure for a single notebook model[1].
On the manufacturing side, Quanta is currently the exclusive assembler for the Neo, and Foxconn could become a second supplier in the near future[1]. In addition, Luxshare, which has rapidly expanded its Windows notebook assembly business over the past one to two years and aims to become the world's largest notebook assembler, is actively pursuing the new product introduction (NPI) opportunity for the Neo 2[1].
Kuo predicts that the Neo's shipment momentum will grow steadily quarter by quarter[1]. As reasons, he cites back-to-school and year-end holiday demand, as well as the expectation that the low-cost memory inventory rivals built up last year will be depleted by the middle of the first half of 2026[1]. As a result, from the second quarter of 2026 onward, more notebook PCs may raise prices to reflect higher memory costs, making it harder to compete with the Neo[1].
The Neo 2 Touch Panel and the OLED Roadmap
For the next-generation "MacBook Neo 2," a touch panel had originally been expected as a way to compete with Chromebooks[1]. More than 50 percent of Chromebooks support touch, and adopting touch was seen as a countermeasure, but Kuo's latest industry checks suggest the Neo 2 may not adopt a touch panel[1].
A refresh of display technology is another focus of the forecast. Reiterating his earlier view, Kuo expects the MacBook Pro to receive a major upgrade with an OLED touch panel between late in the fourth quarter of 2026 and early in the first quarter of 2027[1]. The MacBook Air, meanwhile, is seen adopting OLED panels around 2028 or 2029[1]. The picture that emerges is one in which Apple's notebook displays migrate to OLED in order, starting from the higher-end models.
Apple's Strategy and Total MacBook Shipments in 2026
Kuo estimates total MacBook shipments in 2026 at about 25 million units[1]. That represents a 20 to 25 percent increase year over year and could mark a return to the peak levels seen during the COVID era[1]. This stands in contrast to Windows notebook shipments, which are expected to decline by more than 10 percent year over year, and Kuo describes the MacBook as "the only real bright spot among laptop brands"[1].
Behind this, Kuo points to Apple's pricing strategy[1]. He argues that the pricing seen from the iPhone 17e through to the MacBook Neo reinforces a strategy of turning the memory market chaos to Apple's advantage: securing chips, absorbing the costs, and grabbing more market share[1]. This view, he says, also strengthens the case that Apple may keep prices unchanged for the new iPhones launching in the second half of 2026[1]. Kuo concludes that as Apple continues to expand its market share, it supports the growth of its high-margin services business while also positioning the company as the biggest beneficiary once on-device AI eventually takes off[1].
Summary
Kuo's forecast paints a picture in which Apple comes close to standing alone as the winner in the 2026 notebook PC market. The MacBook Neo shipment outlook and the OLED roadmap are specific, but they should all be received with the understanding that they are an analyst's observations rather than official Apple announcements.
